Making sense of market madness
The economy and stock markets seem to be reading different books, let alone them being on the same page. When markets get divorced from the reality, investors become jittery. Under current market conditions, you need to have confidence to increase bets on the markets and courage to book out.
Since our philosophy is kyon ki bhaiya sabse bada rupaiya, our endeavour is always to help investors take well-informed decisions.
As part of this mission, we recently caught up with Sandeep Tandon, MD and CEO of Quant Mutual Fund, who shared his views on money, markets and madness @ 52k. Here’s our interpretation of his insights, which could go a long way in helping you decipher the present market conditions.
Why don’t markets care about the economy anymore?
There’s been a great imbalance between the scale of operation of the financial economy and the real economy. The global financial economy, at over ~900 trillion USD, is approximately 10 times bigger than the real economy. In other words, more than the real economy, aptitude and the risk appetite of investors operating in the financial economy affect the markets the most.
What drives markets the most: The real economy or sentiment?
(Source: Quant Mutual Fund)
Are markets flying without parachutes and running out of fuel?
- There isn’t any fresh bubble formation in the global markets. In fact, the bubble has already bust in 2020.
- What we have been seeing at present is complacency, which is at a 40-year high in the US markets.
- Interestingly, the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiples offered to tech companies in the US (except in the case of a few) seem to have already peaked out.
- The reserve currency status of the US Dollar is likely to be challenged during this decade.
- The coming decade belongs to the emerging markets, particularly to Asian markets. And money flows are likely to shift away from developed markets.
- Indian markets seem to be well-placed and buy-on-dips is a good strategy to adopt in India.
- The prospects of beaten down stocks and sectors offering value appear bright.
- Commodities in general, and agri-commodities to be specific, haven’t run their course yet.
- The prospects of precious metals appear promising and platinum may outperform silver, while silver may outdo gold in future.
Better to be cautious than greedy
Risk-on moves seem to have played out already in the mature markets. India too has mirrored the risk-on preferences to an extent. Thus, the returns are unlikely to be linear and the global sentiment still isn’t entirely in favour of India. But from the long term point of view, India is nowhere close to the risk-on environment experienced in the US markets.
In a nutshell
Preserving capital and buying-on-dips is the key to making alpha. The value theme appears more attractive than growth at this juncture.
Hope this helps clear the air…
Being relevant is the guiding principle of money managers at Quant. What does it mean?
- Manage portfolios actively—no index hugging
- Take systematic and data-driven investment decisions without being constrained by a specific school of thoughts
- Focus on generating Alpha without increasing the portfolio Beta. In simple words, aim to outperform without taking excessive risks
- And most importantly, the thrust is always on preserving capital
Quant Mutual Fund depends extensively on its proprietary VLRT (Valuation, Liquidity, Risk Appetite, Time) framework which follows a multi-dimensional approach for analysis. Thus, Quant Mutual Fund is value-driven, sector agnostic, realistic and nimble.
You may also like to read: Decoding the world’s love-hate relationship with China
The blog is for information purposes only and it’s purely based on the interpretation of our conversation with Sandeep. Anything mentioned herein should neither be construed as financial/investment advice nor should it form part of any view/recommendation(s) given by Ventura. Under no circumstances the contents of this blog should be treated as Ventura Securities’ market view. The only purpose of this coverage is to create awareness amongst investors and help them take well-informed decisions.
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We do not have any financial interest of any nature in the company. We do not individually or collectively hold 1% or more of the securities of the company. We do not have any other material conflict of interest in the company. We do not act as a market maker in securities of the company. We do not have any directorships or other material relationships with the company. We do not have any personal interests in the securities of the company. We do not have any past significant relationships with the company such as Investment Banking or other advisory assignments or intermediary relationships. We are not responsible for the risk associated with the investment/disinvestment decision made on the basis of this blog article.